Tag: Probability

  • Probability, Creeps, and Accusations: On Kate Manne on Tara Reade

    Joshua Mozersky ____ Let me begin with a model.  Suppose that there are 1000 men in the country and that 200 of them have committed ‘minor crimes’, things like shoplifting or turnstile jumping.  Next, suppose that 20 of the 1000 have committed ‘major crimes’: murder, kidnapping, assault.  While not everyone who commits a major crime […]

  • Simulation or Mere Semblance (of an Argument)?

    E. John Winner **In the following discussion, I am indebted to a paper written by Brian Eggleston, when he was an undergraduate systems analysis student at Stanford University. [1] Much of the recent interest in the idea that we all might be living in a computer simulation, run by an advanced civilization, arises from an […]